The number of new cases of liver cancer and deaths from the disease could increase by more than 55% by 2040 if action is not taken, a major new global analysis has revealed.

The analysis provided updated estimates of the current global burden of liver cancer while also providing predictions of the number of cases and deaths up to 2040.

Data was extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, which includes 185 countries. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated. Cases and deaths up to the year 2040 were predicted based on incidence and mortality rates for 2020 and global demographic projections to 2040.

The results showed that in 2020, an estimated 905,700 people were diagnosed with liver cancer worldwide, while 830,200 people died from the disease. Rates of cases and deaths were highest in Eastern Asia and Northern Africa.

The disease was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries. Rates were higher worldwide among men.

Meanwhile, the number of new cases per year is predicted to increase by 55% between 2020 and 2040, with a possible 1.4 million people diagnosed in 2040. An estimated 1.3 million people may die from the disease in 2040, a 56% increase compared to 2020.

“Liver cancer causes a huge burden of disease globally each year. It is also largely preventable if control efforts are prioritised - major risk factors include hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol consumption, excess body weight and metabolic conditions including type 2 diabetes,” commented the research’s senior author, Dr Isabelle Soerjomataram of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) at the Cancer Surveillance Branch in Lyon, France.

According to the research’s lead author, Harriet Rumgay, a PhD candidate also at IARC in Lyon, the aim of this research was to “provide the most up-to-date assessment of the burden of liver cancer and develop an essential tool for national liver cancer control planning”.

The researchers said that they were alarmed to find that the number of cases and deaths will continue to increase year on year, placing major pressure on resources. They noted that if these increases are to be avoided, countries worldwide must achieve a 3% annual decrease in incidence and mortality rates through  preventative measures.

“We are at a turning point in liver cancer prevention as successes in hepatitis B and hepatitis C control efforts will be reflected in rates of liver cancer in the next few decades. These efforts must be sustained and reinforced especially considering the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic on certain hepatitis B and C control efforts," noted Dr Soerjomataram.

The researchers are calling on public health officials to prepare for the predicted increase in demand for liver cancer resources and to reinforce current liver cancer prevention measures such as immunisation against hepatitis B, a reduction in population alcohol consumption and curbing the rise in diabetes and obesity prevalence.

This analysis is published in the Journal of Hepatology and can be viewed here.