Modest reductions in some of the major lifestyle causes of heart disease could lead to a substantial drop in deaths over the next two decades, according to new Irish research.

Research carried out by population health specialist and statistician Dr Kathleen Bennett found that a 15% cut in smoking rates between now and 2030 could result in a 7% reduction in deaths from coronary heart disease in Ireland, North and South.

Similarly, a 6% reduction in the population's saturated fat intake could reduce heart disease deaths by 10% in future, according to the research.

Also, a 15% increase in physical activity could cut coronary deaths by 4%, while reducing dietary salt intake by 30% could cut these deaths by 4%.

On the other hand, Dr Bennett said more modest reductions in heart disease risk factors would lead to much smaller decreases in heart disease death rates.

For example, a 5% reduction in smoking would reduce coronary heart disease deaths by 2.2% and a 10% reduction in salt intake would only cut these deaths by deaths by 1.5%.

These projected modest reductions in lifestyle risk factors are based on what might be expected to happen over the 2013-2030, if additional efforts were not made to reduce these heart disease risks.

Dr Bennett said there had already been a substantial reduction in deaths from coronary heart disease in Ireland both North and South since the mid-1980s.

The main reasons for this reduction were improved drugs and treatments, and reductions in risk factors such as smoking and cholesterol levels, although these improvements have been offset somewhat by growing levels of obesity and diabetes.

However, she said greater efforts could be made at public health policy level to ensure that coronary heart disease deaths are cut further over the next two decades.

Dr Bennett, who works at TCD and St James's Hospital, told irishhealth.com that reducing the amount of salt in bread, for example, could in the long term make a major difference to heart disease mortality rates.

Excessive salt intake can a major contributory factor to heart disease and stroke.

She said more aggressive policies were needed both North and South to control tobacco consumption, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

She presented her research at the Summer Scientific Meeting of the Royal College of Physicians of Ireland.

Meanwhile, a research paper co-authored by Dr Bennett found a striking similarity in the rate of decline in heart disease and stroke mortality between the Republic and the North since the mid-1980s.

The study, co-authored with researchers from the Republic and Northern Ireland, found that the percentage drop in heart disease mortality between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 was 67% and 69% respectively for the Republic and the North, and stroke mortality showed a 64% and 62% fall in two jurisdictions respectively.

While differences in the pace of change in mortality were observed at different timepoints, substantial decreases in deaths from both conditions were achieved in the two jurisdictions despite important differences in health service structures, the authors said.

This research was published online in the journal Heart.

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