In mid-February we felt a comfortable indifference to the impending threat posed by Covid-19. This ‘Chinese’ virus, as US president Trump inappropriately labels it, seemed to be limited mainly to the Chinese city of Wuhan. Similar to previous epidemics like SARS in 200 3 and MERs in 2012, the coronavirus epidemic seemed to be a foreign affliction, mainly of academic interest. Swine flu (influenza H1N1) back in 2009 was a more urgent menace, but proved less virulent than imagined and, with vaccines available, only required orchestrated inoculation by obliging GPs.

We have been waiting for a ‘real’ pandemic since the devastating ‘Spanish flu’ of 1918-19. Somewhere between 50 and 100 million people died as a result of this influenza which spread rapidly through a non-immune population. Its origin has been traced back to an avian source, possibly poultry.¹ We need to remember that Spanish flu came in repeated waves over the 12 months following its initial outbreak.

History informs us of recurrent plagues. The Justinian plague killed many in 541 AD and returned as the infamous ‘Black Death’ in the 14th century, decimating Europe and reducing the population by 60% over several years. Caused by yersina pestis and carried by fleas on rats, it spread to sailors who landed in Sicily in 1347. The Venetians banned sailors from entering their cities for a period of 40 days (quaranta giorni), thus giving rise to the familiar term for forced isolation – ‘to quarantine’.  Interestingly, the population of that time may have been more vulnerable to severe infection. A simultaneous change in the climate in the 14th century, with a 1°C drop in temperatures across Europe, later known as the Little Ice Age, resulted in poorer harvests, food shortages and a weaker populace.

We take the climate for granted and we don’t tend to notice a subtle change like the 1.1°C temperature rise over the past 100 years. The 2017 IPCC report on climate change estimates that we have only 10 years to halve carbon emissions and 30 to become carbon neutral or the effects of global warming could have disastrous consequences for the planet.²

We cannot fathom the fact we now have a species extinction rate 1,000 times greater than the background rate.³ The erosion of biodiversity and destruction of habitats has led to a proliferation of certain adaptable species, eg. bats and rodents, that are the most likely to promote the transmission of pathogens. The Ebola epidemic has been traced to the consumption of a chimpanzee in a Liberian jungle. Swine flu originated among intensively raised pigs, and now this novel coronavirus began in the wet markets of Wuhan. It is estimated that 60% of emerging infectious diseases are of animal origin.⁴ Maybe we need to question our animal husbandry methods where profit is the main motivator.

A new discipline known as planetary health is emerging, focusing on the increasingly visible connections between the wellbeing of humans, other living things and entire ecosystems. It has been interesting from an ecological perspective to see the positive indirect effects that the current ‘lockdowns’ have had on other areas of society. NASA satellite imagery has shown marked reductions in air pollution over China between January and February 2020. Aviation has decreased seven-fold over this period. Air pollution kills 1.1 million people in China every year (many times more than deaths that Covid-19 has caused). In Northern Italy, since the country went into lockdown, NO2 levels have fallen by about 40%. The now silent canals of Venice are thronged with fish. Is this a glimpse of what we might see in the future if we can move to a low carbon economy?

Public health and politicians have shown good leadership at this time of crisis. Uncomfortable but timely decisions are being taken for the greater good. There is still a long way to go in terms of coping with the continuous rise in acute cases. We are also likely to have to pick up the pieces of the resultant adverse physical and mental health consequences of this economic downturn. However, there has been a positive social aspect to this crisis; we are rediscovering qualities that have been shown to enhance wellbeing and health. Community spirit, social connection and common purpose have all been rekindled. Our concern for the elderly, vulnerable and isolated in our society has been met with extraordinary acts of generosity. This age of self-obsession with constant striving for personal gain and gratification is confronting its nemesis.

Hopefully the lessons from this pandemic will inform our leaders to show equally strong resolve in reconstructing a more just society wherein the global planetary effect of our actions is brought to the fore. Understandably, our only concern at this time is the immediate threat to ourselves and our loved ones in a pandemic that stretches all healthcare systems. When the dust settles, hopefully we will have the maturity to take stock and appreciate the bigger picture and what really matters to us – the safety and security of those we love and the place we call home. May we remember how this beautiful world has been utterly changed.

References on request