Extending free GP care to the entire population in 2026 would cost the State up to €881 million, new research by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has found.

Such a move would also lead to an extra 2.3 million GP visits that year, it noted.

The research, which was funded by the Department of Health, estimated the cost of extending free GP care over the period 2023-2026, basing this extension on different age and income scenarios.

Using the age-based approach, the ESRI estimated that the cost of extending free GP care to all in 2026 would be between €462 million and €881 million. Using the income-based approach, the cost would be between €381 million and 881 million.

“These projected costs incorporate assumptions on projected population growth and ageing, take-up rates, increases in payments to GPs between 2019 and 2022 and additional cost growth between 2023 and 2026,” the ESRI noted.

In 2019, around 56% of the population did not have a medical card or GP visit card. This means that unlike most European countries, a majority of the population has to pay privately for a range of primary care services, including GP care.

As a result, extending eligibility for free GP care to all “would increase the demand for GP visits”, the ESRI highlighted.

In the age-based approach, it estimated that there would be an extra 2.3 million GP visits in 2026 if free care was extended to all, representing a 12% increase.

Commenting on the findings, lead author of the research report, Dr Sheelah Connolly, pointed to the Sláintecare Report, which noted the need to move towards a universal healthcare system in Ireland.

However, she acknowledged that while increasing the number of people entitled to free GP care would help achieve this objective, “there may not be a sufficient number of GPs available to deliver the additional visits associated with the ageing and growing population, as well as an increase in the number of people eligible for free GP care in the coming years”.

“If there are not sufficient GPs to meet the additional demand for their services, then, while financial barriers to access may be removed, other barriers including long waits or no availability could hinder access, thereby undermining the universality of the system,” she said.

The full ESRI report into this latest research can be viewed here.